February was A good month for the market to show weak reality and strong expectations. In addition to the conventional theme concepts of A-shares such as Shin Chuang and chatGPT, we noticed that the domestic commodity market and non-ferrous resource companies in Hong Kong and A saw a lot of pull up when the international commodity prices did not rise significantly. Meanwhile, the building materials companies saw their year-on-year shipment data meet expectations. They are still being chased by money; In addition, excavators, heavy trucks and other industrial chains have also risen in different amplitude. Compared with the end developers, the market is more optimistic about the recovery of the real estate chain this year, especially because of the demand support brought by the guarantee building. However, we have recently visited a lot of areas and investigated some consigned building projects. The actual progress may not be as good as expected due to some issues concerning salable value and collateral.
In addition, the recent high - interest stocks and state-owned enterprises have a higher concern. In fact, the A-share market has long ignored dividend yields and free cash flow in favor of changes in reported profits and industry sentiment. That is because the country's past breakneck growth masked inadequate shareholder returns. However, with the weakening of the overall economic growth rate and the introduction of the registration system, the high valuation of A shares still has the risk of systemic decline. Therefore, when choosing stocks, although the short-term is still dominated by changes in game fundamentals, shareholder returns will occupy an increasingly high proportion, both long and short.