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January 2023 Market Insights

2023-02-05

In 2022, macro investment accounted for the highest proportion. In 2023, with the optimization of epidemic control, the implementation of anti-monopoly policy and the gradual adjustment of real estate policy, investment should be a bottom-up process, that is, to play down macro factors and focus on the recovery and growth of enterprises.

We judge that in 2023, even if market expectations are relatively large, there will still be no relatively large stimulus plan. In terms of means, except the central government and the enterprise sector, other sectors have a high leverage ratio and limited ability to stimulate. On the demand side, large volume projects that have a significant impact on GDP face the problem of low returns. So the top brass is also waiting to see which way to boost growth. But in any case, there will be no negative policies this year.

So in this context, it is critical to focus on the growth of the industry and the company itself. Some enterprises have made a lot of accumulation in the past three years, but due to the decline of the industry and the overall demand, the performance is difficult to release; Some companies have taken advantage of the industry downturn to expand their share. These are likely to grow faster than the industry average when the economy recovers in 2023. That's where we're going this year on the investment side.

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