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October 2022 Market Insights

2022-11-05

October was A difficult month for the market. The index of Hong Kong A and Hong Kong both showed a sharp decline. The main short-term factors are as follows:

(1) The epidemic control was further tightened, and there was no sign of relaxation, especially after the 20th anniversary.

(2) The real estate downturn that lasted for more than a year did not ease. The land production and sales volume continued to decline in the whole of October. Meanwhile, Xu Hui's default made the whole industry worse. This pessimistic expectation, spread to the earlier relatively stable central state-owned enterprises, because the market expects that this year's land is more aggressive part of the state-owned housing enterprises, in the next year still have gross profit margin decline to slow down and other problems.

(3) The further depreciation of RMB leads to the outflow of foreign capital from Hong Kong A and Hong Kong A. In the long run, China's manufacturing industry still has a relatively high cost advantage in the world under the condition that residents continue to subsidiize the manufacturing industry. Recently, technology iteration in some industries, such as automobile and dual carbon, has been accelerated, and it has a certain technical advantage. Therefore, we believe that despite the vigorous promotion of the dual cycle, consumption will still be relatively weak. Some manufacturing enterprises with technological cost advantages and effective distribution in both domestic and foreign markets still have long-term growth potential.

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December 2022 Market Insights

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